Terms of Reference – Global Outlook: Forest-risk commodities

Background

The landscape for forest-risk commodities is changing. Regulations, policies, trade agreements and consumption trends are in flux, affecting the global demand and supply for key commodities that drive deforestation and human rights violations. There is concern that these diverse trends pull in different directions and risk enabling continued commodity-driven deforestation. Yet, the full picture of these emerging market trends and how they might affect forest-risk commodities and their deforestation footprints remains unclear.

Objective

This research aims to (a.) identify medium-term emerging market trends that may affect the demand for forest-risk commodities until 2030 and 2035, (b.) analyse the importance of these trends for forest-risk commodity demand, and (c.) analyse the land use effects of the identified trends in key rainforest geographies.

Scope

The research will map and analyse emerging dynamics affecting forest risk commodities relevant to three large contiguous rainforest areas, in the (1) Amazon, (2) the Congo Basin and (3) South-East Asia and Oceania. It will cover the most relevant forest-risk commodities linked to the medium-term trends and impacts identified through this research.

Use of the research

This research will be published as a report on RFN’s website and is supported by Norad funding. The findings of this research will be used to provide valuable insights for decision-makers in public policy, the finance sector and companies who work against commodity-driven deforestation. The research will be used in efforts to strengthen understanding of emerging market trends that will likely affect key commodities in the medium term, estimate their impact on land use change, and identify measures that could address these dynamics. The findings will strengthen RFN’s knowledge on its third strategic objective (SO3), supporting strategy development and evidence-based advocacy to halt commodity-driven deforestation.

Deliverables

• Inception report, which should include:
  • Outline of study
  • Methodology, including sources and interview list, including data handling in compliance with GDPR, plan for storing open access data
  • Literature review
  • Timeline, scope, and delimitations
  • Detailed budget
    

• Draft report, presenting the initial findings for the review by and feedback from RFN, which should include the following:
  • Overview and rationale behind each market trend included
  • Different scenarios analysis considering different market trends
  • Tables and maps
  • Recommendations for public and private sector decision-makers
  • Methods and limitations
    
• Final report, presented to RFN after feedback has been received and integrated into the draft report

Research questions

The following questions are the starting point for this research project:

• Which factors are expected to affect the selected forest-risk commodities until 2030 and 2035?
• Considering, for example:
  • Regulations and policies in relevant producing and consuming geographies
  • Trade agreements, e.g. Mercosur-EU, Mercosur-EFTA, Indonesia-EU, ASEAN-Mercosur
  • Demand projections and consumption shifts
  • Sectoral projections, e.g. for the industrial livestock and aquaculture sectors
  • Infrastructure projects, e.g. the proposed connection to Asia through the Pacific route from Brazil through Peru
• What effect(s) could these factors have on the identified key rainforest areas until 2030 and 2035?

Timeline

The research project is expected to be conducted over 6 working months with regular progress updates and milestones, starting from January/February 2025. The final deadline, milestones and progress updates will be agreed in dialogue with RFN and specified in the contract.

Methodology and limitations

Description of the chosen methodology, reasons for the choice and its implications.

Review of relevant existing reports and scientific literature. Overview of data sources.

Clear overview of key caveats and assumptions for any included projections.

The selected assumptions should be rooted in evidence and plausible at the time of analysis.

Budget

450 000 NOK

How to apply

Candidates interested in submitting a proposal should email the documents listed below to Veera Mo, veera@rainforest.no, by 8th of January 2025.

Candidates must submit the following:

- CV of all members in the team, and a summary (maximum two pages combined) of their qualifications.

- Proposed methodology and timeline, max 2 pages.

- A financial offer, including daily fees based on 8 working hours per day. If team members have different fees, the expected division of labour between them must be indicated. Include any other costs necessary to carry out the research.

- At least two references (including contacts) for similar work.

Questions regarding the assignment can be submitted to the main contact.

Main contact: Veera Mo, veera@rainforest.no

Selection criteria

The study shall be carried out by one consultant or a team. Among the proposed individuals/teams, RFN will select the candidate(s) that provide best value for money based on a consideration of:

• to what extent the consultant/team are well suited for the task, emphasizing in-depth expertise (including academic work and/or implementation) and the relevance of the specific technical expertise and experience of the team member(s),
• the proposed methodology and
• the total cost of the proposal.

Evaluation of proposals

Tenderers will be ranked according to a score based on the following criteria:

• Understanding of the assignment: 10%
• Methodology: 30%
• Past experience: 20%
• Team competency: 20%
• Budget: 20%

Eligible tenderers

i) Tenderers must provide information on their legal form and ownership structure.

ii) Tenderers shall be excluded from participation in a procurement procedure if:

(1) they are bankrupt, are having their affairs administered by the courts, or have suspended business activities.

(2) they or persons having powers of representation, decision-making, or control over them have been convicted of an offence concerning their professional conduct by a final judgment.

(3) they have been guilty of grave professional misconduct.

(4) they have not fulfilled obligations relating to the payment of social security contributions or taxes in accordance with the legal provisions of the country in which they are established, or those of the country where the contract is to be performed.

(5) they or persons having powers of representation, decision-making, or control over them have been convicted for fraud, corruption, involvement in a criminal organization or money laundering by a final judgment.

(6) they make use of child labour or forced labour and/or practice discrimination, and/or do not respect the right to freedom of association and the right to organize and engage in collective bargaining pursuant to the core conventions of the International Labour Organization (ILO).

iii) Tenderers shall confirm in writing that they are not in any of the situations listed above. RFN reserves the right to investigate any of the situations listed above if it has reasonable grounds to doubt the contents of such confirmation.

iv) Contracts shall not be awarded to tenderers which, during the procurement procedure:

(1) are subject to a conflict of interests.

(2) are guilty of misrepresentation in supplying the information required as a condition of participation in the tender procedure or fail to supply this information.

Ethical considerations

Ethical considerations will be upheld throughout the research process, ensuring informed consent, confidentiality, and respect for the rights and privacy of participants. The assignment should be conducted in accordance with the highest professional standards. As such, the work will ensure sensitive, safe, non-discriminatory participation, confidentiality, and anonymity of respondents. Specific consideration must be given to ethical issues of design, data collection, reporting and storage. According to the EU General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR), the consultancy must maintain appropriate measures to protect personal data. Info on GDPR can be found here: https://gdpr.eu